Global temperatures will rise by at least 3º C if nations stick to their current commitments and don’t push for stricter measures to limit warming to the safe 2º C threshold, a study has found.
The Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission has assessed proposals submitted by 155 nations due to participate at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference that will start in Paris next month and found the suggested measures are not enough to sufficiently tackle global warming.
The 155 nations involved in the assessment are responsible for about 90 per cent of global emissions.
By looking at the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) that the countries had submitted ahead of the conference, the JRC found that with the measures fully implemented, global greenhouse gas emission will continue to rise to around 17 per cent above the 2010 levels by 2030.
That, however, is not in line with the global goal set by the UN Convention on Climate Change, which aims to limit the global warming to 2º C in order to prevent devastating consequences such as droughts, floods and other severe weather events.
To keep the temperature increase below the safe threshold, global greenhouse gas emissions would have to peak in 2020 and by 2030 decline to 10 per cent below the 2010 levels.
Even with further international financial support, the emissions are projected to rise to at least 12 per cent above the 2010 levels by 2030, which would mean a temperature increase by around 3° C, one degree more than the global goal.