The dominance of China's solar industry is not driven solely by cheap labour and government support, according to a new study.
A study of the photovoltaic industries in the USA and China has found that larger-scale manufacturing and resulting supply-chain benefits are the key differences between the two countries’ sectors.
To carry out their analysis, the researchers adopted the perspective of a multi-national firm evaluating locations for a solar panel manufacturing facility by comparing Minimum Sustainable Price (MSP) – the minimum price that will still provide an adequate return for the company – for monocrystalline silicon solar panels manufactured in each region.
Using industry-validated figures from the first half of 2012, they estimated an MSP of $1.19 per Watt for US solar panels, compared to $0.91 per Watt for Chinese solar panels, representing a price advantage of 23 per cent for a China-based manufacturer.
But when the researchers, from the US Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), examined country-specific factors for this price difference, they found China's historical advantage of low-cost labour was counteracted by other regional influences.
The study, published yesterday in the Royal Society of Chemistry journal Energy & Environmental Science, found that the dominant reason behind China’s success is primarily the scale of solar panel manufacturing in the region, enabled by access to capital and a less restrictive business and regulatory environment.
Al Goodrich, senior analyst at NREL and lead author of the study, said: "These advantages, which are not indigenous to China, could be replicated by manufacturers based in other countries if comparable scale could be achieved.
"But for solar power, there's a chicken and egg problem: consistent demand is needed to provide manufacturers with access to the capital required to achieve large scale production, but large-scale production will be necessary for solar power to compete as an energy source without subsidies.”
The study shows that the density of production and the cost-benefit of using local suppliers give a China-based manufacturer access to cheaper materials and machinery. These scale and supply-chain advantages provide a China-based solar panel factory with a significant MSP advantage of $0.28 per Watt.
But the researchers say a balance could be achieved through future innovations in crystalline solar cell technology, which have the potential to equalise prices by enhancing access to materials and expanding manufacturing scale across all regions.
"Future innovations in silicon solar panels, which may be most quickly and effectively realised through global collaborative effort, have the potential to reduce key investment risks for manufacturers. This would enable manufacturing on an equivalent scale across most regions, bringing the benefits of high volume production to them all," said Goodrich.
Professor Tonio Buonassisi, associate professor at MIT and co-author of the study, says the “holy grail” of the industry is a photovoltaic module that has high efficiency, lower materials costs, streamlined and scalable manufacturing and high reliability – features that no current module has been able to combine.
He said: "The glass industry between the 1880s and the 1950s underwent innovations that streamlined the process to one integrated tool, where you put feedstock in one end and get one product out at the other end.
"We envisage a similar evolution for solar panel manufacturing. Practical innovations in photovoltaic technologies will accelerate the convergence of solar power and traditional energy sources in the future, terms of both price and scale.
"This common goal, for the benefit nations across the world, is an opportunity for international cooperation that leverages our complementary strengths."