Consumer traffic will fight business users for Net space

Global Internet traffic will quadruple to 767 Exabytes (Eb) by 2014, according to the latest update from the Cisco Visual Network Index.

Traffic growth will continue to be driven  by video, exceeding 91 per cent of global consumer IP traffic by 2014. Improvements in network bandwidth capacity and Internet speeds – along with the increasing popularity of HDTV and 3DTV – are key factors expecting to boost IP traffic fourfold from 2009 to 2014.

Consumer IP traffic is projected to grow faster than business: for 2009, consumer IP traffic represented 79 per cent of monthly total global IP traffic, and business IP traffic was 21 per cent of monthly total global IP traffic. By 2014, consumer IP traffic (web surfing, instant messaging, user-generated videos, etc.) will represent 87 per cent of monthly total global IP traffic; while business IP traffic (email, voice, Internet, HD, and Web-based video conferencing, etc.) will account for just 13 per cent of monthly total global IP traffic.

The Cisco VNI Forecast was developed as an annual study to estimate global IP traffic growth and trends. Projections are based on Cisco analysis and modeling of traffic, usage, and device data from independent analyst sources. Cisco validates its forecast, inputs, and methodology with data provided by service providers worldwide.

By 2014, the highest IP-traffic generating regions will be:

  • North America (19.0Eb per month), Asia Pacific (17.4Eb per month).
  • Western Europe (16.2Eb per month), and Japan (4.3Eb per month).

The fastest growing IP-traffic regions for the forecast period 2009-2014 are:

  • Latin America (51 per cent compound annual growth rate [CAGR], 7.9-fold growth).
  • The Middle East and Africa (45 per cent CAGR, 6.5-fold growth).
  • Central Europe (38 per cent CAGR, 5.1-fold growth).

The Cisco VNI predicts that global Internet video traffic will surpass global peer-to-peer traffic by the end of 2010, meaning that for the first time in the last 10 years, peer-to-peer traffic will not be the largest Internet traffic type. The global online video community will include more than 1bn users by the end of 2010.

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